Blizzard Selling Bots Now!

Posted by Daeity On Thursday, September 29, 2011

Well, not really.

But they do own all of the GLIDER trademarks now. :)

This one must have flew under the radar. It appears that the exchange took place about a couple weeks ago.

The (MMO) GLIDER trademark was previously owned by MDY INDUSTRIES LLC (remember the one they sued?) and they're all still LIVE:

http://tarr.uspto.gov/servlet/tarr?regser=serial&entry=77301195
http://tarr.uspto.gov/servlet/tarr?regser=serial&entry=77301191
http://tarr.uspto.gov/servlet/tarr?regser=serial&entry=77301198
http://tarr.uspto.gov/servlet/tarr?regser=serial&entry=77301201

I never really followed the case, but maybe this was part of the judgement?

Pretty cool anyways. :)

  • I found an interesting resume of a Blizzard employee who has been working there for the past 2.5 months.

    His name is Robert "Robby" Duncan, and here's the interesting part from his resume:
    2011 – Unannounced Game Title (Blizzard Entertainment - 2.5 months)

    Designed and implemented a series of single-player missions, developed new features, participated in key design decisions, and provided a thorough design-analysis of the entire product.
    As soon as I read the "participated in key design decisions", I immediately thought "this guy must be an intern!". As I scrolled down towards the bottom of the resume, it was confirmed. :)

    Blizzard has a 12 week paid internship program by the way.

    Here are the points that stood out:

    * This does not appear to be Titan, it's the other "unannounced" game that Blizzard has been working on.
    * Due to his early involvement in the project ("key design decision", "thorough design-analysis of the entire product"), this indicates that it's in very early stages of development. Titan is supposed to be much farther along.
    * Based on his expertise, it's a PC platform game. (He also has SC2 Editor experience.)
    * "Single-player missions" is RTS/MOBA language.

    Based on Blizzards franchise release trends, I've always assumed with 99% certainty that the other unannounced game was going to be WarCraft IV/SC2 Phoenix related. This looks to be a pretty good confirmation (coincidentally, even his email address was rduncanIV@gmaildotcom).

    Either that, he's slow, or he's trolling and it has nothing to do with a RTS franchise, even though he uses RTS language.

  • * UPDATE:

  • I found a very interesting blog post that was made a few months ago by a Blizzard employee named Shay Pierce. In this post, he describes working on a prototype game within the Blizzard workplace:
    The idea started to come to me as I worked on card game and board game design prototypes - this, I realized, was a very pure form of game design. Though "table game" design gives you a limited set of tools compared to those you have on electronic games, it can really open your eyes as to what the core of game design really is.
    This could be very big news indeed. His mention of card games makes me think back to the Product Slate Leak, where WOW TCG was mentioned. This seems to be related to that online World of Warcraft trading card game. Perhaps this is what Robert is working on if it's not a RTS or MOBA title. "Team 4" would be the unannounced MMO and "Team 5" is this upcoming trading card game? A game like that would be very successful on PC and mobile.

  • In other news, I caught a very interesting B.Net post about wagering within Diablo 3. It was written by Sixen, one of the Community MVPs on the official message boards.
    Date: 9/22/2011
    "It's something Force and I brought up at the Press Event back in July... Gambling, Replays, and Observer Mode to PvP. Jay Wilson said they're all cool ideas they want to do at some point in time... Just... Later on down the road."
    So, right now most of the focus is on PVE, but later on down the road Blizzard is really keen on implementing an observer mode and an in-game wagering/betting system for PVP arena matches. This totally fits in with the high stakes arena gambling system I mentioned in that old mock Diablo 3 X1 post. :)

    Not only that, but apparently Micah Whipple (aka Bashiok) is ALL FOR turning Diablo 3 into a whole PVP / E-Sports system with wagering and arena gambling for players. Very interesting indeed.. it might not be called gambling though, I've noticed that Blizzard has been very careful in how they use that word (for obvious reasons) and get rather nervous when it's mentioned.

  • Because Diablo 3 is online only, it opens up some really cool features like what they have in World of Warcraft. Nothing has been announced yet, but I'm 100% certain that there will be holiday events and special activities during certain times of the year. Specific details about these events will most likely be exposed when people finally hack apart the retail code and patch updates. There will probably be Halloween stuff around town, Christmas presents, unique items that are only available on certain days, and even random events or encounters with a Holiday-based boss. 4-teaming a demonic Santa Claus for example. Since there's a server timer involved, I wonder if D3 will be implementing daily quests for players.. an extra way to level up, or earn gold for selling?

  • Constance Wang apparently left Blizzard last month, and now she's developing content for the new Wildstar MMORPG. :) Constance, by the way, was a PA on the Titan team. She wasn't directly involved in development, but assisted with the research for them (ie, lore related stuff, library book diving, etc.)

  • If you were curious if there were any Titan goodies in Kim Sellentin's tweets.. there aren't. I managed to find out. She's always been pretty careful about what she writes, though, especially after she started working at Blizzard.

A few updates..

Posted by Daeity On Wednesday, September 28, 2011

  • Rockstar has officially announced the release dates of LA Noire PC. No one cares. Everyone just wants to know when Red Dead Redemption PC is coming out.

  • Apparently, LA Noire also turned out exactly as Daeity had predicted. High sales in the beginning, will never be able to match RDR sales, novel type game, linear, and with very little re-playability. That's the biggest complaint that most users have now.. once you beat it, there's no point in playing it again. With the death of the main character, what's really the point in DLC now?

  • Here's a really good video embedded below about the future of AAA MMO's, operating costs of MMOs, and gamer psychology regarding subscription fees. I pretty much agree with everything he said.

Terra Nova Speculation and Stuff

Posted by Daeity On

It's a fun show and I will definitely continue to watch it (the first 20 minutes were the best). I couldn't help but pick apart the show as I watched it though, it had a high cheese factor, many cliches and annoying bits, and they borrowed a little too many things from the Jurassic Park films unfortunately.

  • They have the "brainy daughter" who needs to explain everything. When a narrative isn't available, writers do this to explain things to the audience. Unfortunately, they're treating the audience like stupid children, and they're assuming that no one has watched scifi before. But, that's who the targeted demographic for this show already is.. so it makes no sense.

  • They explained way too soon about the "separate time stream". Most people would have figured that out already, and it was completely unnecessary.

  • They had too many mixed signals. In the future, it's shown as an extremely dangerous dystopia where overpopulation means death. So, ultra-violent overpopulation control stormtroopers break into homes armed with guns, completely destroy and rip apart the place hunting for children. They're about to take a child for presumably disposal purposes when the father intervenes to protect his child. Then, suddenly out of nowhere, you find out later that he could have just paid a fine. That's it.. a small fine, and he could have avoided prison. Where the hell did that come from? At first, it was a very cruel future, with everyone selfishly escaping the the past and destroying the timeline. After they leave the future, they suddenly start making it sound like a nice place and everyone was kind.

  • The father (Jim) was only in prison for about 2 years.. that's it. And yet, somehow the family had to fend for themselves and survive while he was away. That made no sense at all. The mother (Elizabeth) was the breadwinner in the family.. her husband hardly made anything on a cops salary. She was a doctor, the family had MILLIONS, they had wealthy and influential connections, she was the best and brightest in her field, and she was personally selected by the government to travel back in time (out of 0.000001% of the population.) How in the hell did they need to "survive" after dad went to prison?

  • I didn't have a problem with any of the characters except for the annoying teenage son (Josh). This character is all over the place, and his existence makes no sense.

    First, he couldn't wait to leave the terrible future, then he does nothing but complain about paradise and talk about how great the future was.

    Next, he's on a brand new world with sights he's never seen before in his entire lifetime, amazing new plants and animals, non-poisonous fresh air, real food.. and he's apathetic towards all of it. (Although, all of the pilgrims were guilty of this too.. they freak out over seeing a real orange in the future, but when they're surrounded by paradise and unlimited food it doesn't affect them in any way.)

    In the future, he tells his girlfriend he'll "find a way to come back and get her." Is this how teenagers really talk? Shortly after he complains about leaving his one true love behind, it only takes him ONE DAY to start dating a new girl. Guess this proves that he never cared about "future girl" at all.

    Then, he blows off his mandatory duties, orientation, and survival training. Apparently, the future was so easy going that he was expecting the same on Terra Nova. The new girlfriend (who is supposed to be bright and have leadership qualities) doesn't seem to be concerned about this at all.. she also doesn't seem to care when he flips out and acts crazy around his father.

    He also constantly risks his own life to impress the new girl. And, he reveals himself to be a totally incompetent and useless coward with no common sense.

    My opinion? They seriously need to remove all of this soap opera drama from the show, it's a tragedy, and I hope "Josh" dies painfully.

  • There were also no stars in the sky during nighttime. Terra Nova has a Hollywood sky. If you ever lived in the country, you'd know what the sky really looks like when you're away from city lights. And this entire planet has no artificial lighting emanating from Earth.

  • The muzzle-flash-strobe-light-effect-on-dinosaur-scales-and-eyes was borrowed way too much from Jurassic Park. Most of the scenes were recreated from the films.

  • Dinosaurs are apparently completely immune to thousands of bullets, sonic blasters, and laser cannons.

  • I'm happy that they introduced some mystery into the show. The mathematical equations and geometry by the waterfalls (that looked like they had been there for a while) was a very nice touch. But then they ruined it at the end of the episode, when they revealed who wrote them and pretty much why. They were "the real reason for Terra Nova's existence."

  • I hope they show more scenes from the future, or have new characters but shown from the future. They should have flash forward sequences that show different activities taking place in the future. But, they probably won't.

  • It would be very cool, and redeeming for the show, if they introduce more mystery and scifi elements. More time travel, but possibly ancient civilizations from even before them. I doubt they'll ever bring aliens into the show..
Speculation Time
  • The mathematical equations by the waterfalls were either a timeline chart showing divergence or the creation of a paradox (e.g. it wasn't actually a separate timestream they were in, but rather the same one and they have destroyed the future or it's simply part of the timeline) or he was analyzing star charts and orbital drift, and determined that they weren't in the past but in fact transported to the far future (e.g. long after their old advanced civilization was destroyed and nature recovered without human intervention.)

  • They had to explain the different time stream, so I wonder if they'll revisit that sometime later. If selfish bastards from a cruel society in the future traveled back in time to destroy their old future, they would be viewed as evil human beings. But the audience would be left sympathizing for them if they had no idea of the damage they caused.

  • They also dropped a lot of hints about the locations of celestial bodies, and how everything in the sky looked wrong (even though they had never seen the sky before amazingly). If "brainy daughter" does the math, like she said, then she might come to the same conclusions as Nathaniel's crazy son.
More Speculation: Future Episodes
  • Much of the production budget was spent building the compound set and buildings. So, get used to it. It will be in every episode in S1, and it will never change. If you were expecting a Swiss Family Robinson thing to happen, it definitely won't happen in the first season.

  • There will be "raptors chasing the kids" scenes. "Raptors" meaning any kind of vicious small creature.

  • There won't be any more future scenes, unless it's an old flashback showing the family's life while Dad was in prison or while he was a cop on the beat. Actually.. I'm going to upgrade this to "not sure". They had some really decent sets and props, and it would be complete shame to waste them.

  • There will be family conflict episodes. Teenage son does even more jackass things, he will betray the family and seriously screw them over, he'll put others in danger, or he'll run away.

  • Before watching Terra Nova, I pretty much knew there would be different factions outside the compound. But this was already revealed in the first episode. The "Sixers" are just one group.. there will be more.

  • The "Sixers" will at first be the evil enemies, but eventually they will all become friends and work together against a "new enemy" once the "Sixers" get boring. They will commit very evil acts, and then just one day, they will totally be forgiven.

  • There will be internal conflict and strife within the family, and within the Terra Nova main group.

  • A secret hidden faction will be discovered.. possibly time travelers from the future that came even longer before Nathaniel. There might even be a time traveling group from the very far future (when things get even worse) made up of criminals who killed for the technology.

  • She acts very distant from her husband, so the wife (Elizabeth) probably had an affair while Dad was away in prison for (only) 2 years. She had to do it to "survive", because her millions weren't enough I guess. An early S1 episode will reveal one of her ex-boyfriends on Terra Nova too. He won't be around long though. (Probably gets killed by dinosaurs.)

  • There will be viral outbreak episode. Some strange new disease, bodies aren't used to new parasites, different immunities, etc. etc.

  • There will be a bottle episode where main characters will be trapped in a sunken vehicle or a cave. They can't leave the cave due to predators.

  • The compound will run low on a desperately needed resource, so a strike team is created (with a couple scientists) to sneak out and get the resource.

  • Many extras (adult soldiers & scientists - but no children) will be eaten by dinosaurs. Adults will get eaten whole, teenagers will be scratched and cut but survive.

  • There will be super smart dinosaurs.

If Diablo III had mods..

Posted by Daeity On

  • There would be an option to switch back and forth between a D3/WOW stylized graphics option, and a Classic Diablo look.
  • Players would create Diablo 1 and Diablo 2 conversion packs, also with randomly generated maps.
  • Players could sell these self developed maps on the D3 MapMarketplace.
  • If Blizzard created a Diablo 1 mod, it would be called "D1 Phoenix". :)
  • A player would create a "World of Diablo" mod, but they would be forced by Blizzard to change its name to "Diablo Universe".
  • Players could swap fonts or select new color schemes for their resource bars. For example, Monk's Spirit could be green slime instead of white spooge.
  • Even faster quest pickups. The player would just need to run within 20 yards of a NPC, the quest is auto accepted, and the menu closed.
  • Yards are converted into meters for the confused in other countries.
  • Diablo 3 Auctioneer for much easier management of sales, and tons of undercuts. Meaning more profit for Blizzard and the powerhouses of profit would be making undercuts and reposts constantly.
  • Enchantrix like mods. Mousing over on items would bring up tooltips showing disenchant results as well as converting gold value into current market value cash conversion.
  • More skill keys and the ability to swap in and out of pre-programmed builds quickly.
  • New unit frames, and customizable party frames for easier management.
  • Floating combat text that shows XP, Gold, or Cash wins upon finishing off an opponent.
  • Larger combat text with customizable fonts ("explosive fonts" like out of an arcade fighting game).
  • Recount mods. For threat meters and tracking all statistics that Diablo 3 doesn't. For example, mob kills, highest swing damage, largest heal, pots drank, cash spent, etc.
  • Lore book UI integration with "D3 Recount" showing interesting statistics about each monster. Total kills per act, average level, most amount of damage done, most damage received, value of loot drops, cash value of loot drops, etc.
  • PVP Support mods, for monitoring DPS meters, cool downs, quick build selections, debuffs, onscreen timers and countdowns, etc.
  • Automated in-game gambling systems like trivia bots, card games, or roulette tables for real money.
  • Better stash management and better Auction House UIs
  • Financial management mod for showing gold/cash per hour, or will lock you out from buying items (only selling.)
Of course, some of these mods would be considered unauthorized (eg. swapping media content) but I'm just lumping everything together because it's all just fun wishful thinking.

RMAH vs EBay Argument

Posted by Daeity On

It's a very silly argument, but it seems to be very popular for some reason:

"There's nothing wrong with the RMAH because this is exactly what EBay does and they haven't gotten into any legal trouble."

Unsurprisingly, I haven't seen any intelligent arguments or debates that prove there is no gambling in Diablo 3. It's all just angry fanboys frothing at the mouths, and spitting out EBay as their only example since it's the first thing that comes to mind when they hear "auction". It's quite sad.

So, I've updated the "Diablo 3 and Illegal Online Gambling" post with several examples as to why EBay is not anything like the RMAH and why it's not considered gambling.

Yesterday, the Path of Exile Reddit held a competition where users would post the most funny, witty, or insightful comment. It was not a random give-a-way, but rather a competition.

Everyone competed with each other, and downvoted everyone else. It was like watching 300 vultures fighting and tearing at each other for a morsel of food that was, in fact, just a piece of plastic.

Seeing as how Reddit is pretty much an angry atheist comedy site, I knew that everyone was going to post a "funny" comment because those are the only comments that get upvoted.

So, I decided to put in the one and only "insightful" comment. I figured, there were 3 keys for 3 topics, and everyone would be doing funny/witty.

Apparently, though, posting a deeply insightful post on Reddit will only reward you with very angry downvotes.

Every moment your brain chemistry changes, new synaptic connections are formed, old ones are lost, your cellular structure decays, and your DNA mutates due to the persistent exposure of sunlight, carcinogens, electromagnetics, and radiation. You are in a constant state of change and evolution. So much so, in fact, that the person you were moments ago is literally not the same person you are now. You can't call this "your life" since every moment you essentially die and then you are reborn.

What you perceive as memories were merely experienced by another individual and your mind tricks you into believing that you are that same person. Memories of deep regret, emotion, foolishness, or long lost loves were all something that, in fact, happened to a completely different person. That person no longer exists, and you are not them. You just happen to the unfortunate individual to have inherited their memories, but it's just another deception of the mind.

Remember this always: none of that happened to you. It happened to that other person. You are not them. Keep telling yourself that so that your future inheritors can release their burdens and finally move forwards in life. Your "life" will be ending soon, but you can leave it knowing that you rescued someone who is very important to you.

If my contribution was not 'insightful' enough, please let me know and I can go deeper.
In the end, here were the chosen winners:

1. "Hopefully I will be playing PoE at 21:01 GMT!! [gives bot $5]"
2. "Crossin' my fingers!"
3. "Beta keys = Women Sexed. True Story!"

The very first post automatically won apparently, but the other two were absolutely hilarious and they deserved to win.

Guess I'll just wait for a random invite, I give up with these competitions.

Reduction in WOW Character Names

Posted by Daeity On Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Here's something interesting. In the 4.3 patch, Blizzard is restricting the naming policy again and changing it back to pre-2008 days in North America.

North American realms (excluding Brazilian, Latin American, and Oceanic realms) no longer permit letters with accents in character or guild names. Existing character and guild names with special characters will be unaffected by this change.
If you were around in the "Golden Days", World of Warcraft used to have very strict naming policies on all realms. No special characters, no famous names, no real world references, no partial or complete sentences, no "leet" or "dudespeak", no immersion breaking titles, etc. Everything had to be a true "fantasy name" (yes, even on normal realms) otherwise you would get a warning and a forced name change. Spam or Chuck, or example, would get reported.

Most users have totally forgotten that, during the early days of Vanilla in 2004-2005, Blizzard was very strict about character names and players were actually banned for creating "non-fantasy" related character names. Character names like "Bob", "Bruce", "Dave" or "Chad" for example, would quickly get you a flagged account, a warning, or a ban if you continued to create names that wouldn't exist in the fantasy world. This happened to me and many friends. We were all forced to create new "fantasy" names" and this was on normal PVE and PVP servers. Complaining to GMs only resulted in threats. Part of the problem was that many of the support staff were green and recently hired, new to MMORPG's and trying to make an impression to their bosses. So they were very strict and tried to comply with all company policies. They're much more laid back now than they were before.

As the subscriber base grew, though, players started running out of names. So, in May 2005, it was relaxed allowing new naming conventions.

In April 2008, it was relaxed even further and they allowed special characters to accomodate the further growth of subscribers.

Officially though, Blizzard just said that the reason for the changes were because players wanted it. Just like the Real Money Auction House.. they "only did it because players asked for it". Character restrictions? Players wanted it. Removal of restrictions? Players wanted it. Reimplementation of those restrictions again? Players wanted it. D3 Online Only Requirement? Players wanted it. You know how it goes..

I just find it very interesting that they're putting these restrictions back in place. Having too many Character Names must not be a problem anymore if you see where I'm going. :)

Can't wait for the next Shareholders Meeting.. I wonder, too, if they'll be adjusting their definition of "Subscribers" again to accomodate the WOW Starter Edition.

A Scary Read..

Posted by Daeity On

Very interesting read, but completely unsurprising.

Reddit post here, followed up with a confirmation from the CEO of Lewt.com (a major D2 item seller).

tl;dr version for these posts; Duping exploits in Diablo 2 are still very common, Blizzard knows about it, ignores it for years without patching, hacks@blizzard.com is useless, Blizzard programmers have been intentionally adding new duping exploits, and the Blizzard employees involved with this are suspected to be profiting significantly from it.

The solution to fixing exploits and hacks is really just posting it on as many different sites as possible, and try to get as many players using the exploit as possible. Destroying an economy and ruining everyones game playing experience is one really good way to finally get Blizzard to act.

The Problem With Listing Fees

Posted by Daeity On Monday, September 26, 2011

While discussing the monetary risks involved in the RMAH, I just realized another new facet of the non-refundable Listing Fee.

  • Blizzard will be crediting players with a certain number of free auctions per week (or month.)
  • It's much like casinos comping players, or giving them weekly coupons for a couple free slot machine pulls. It's free, there's no risk, it's not really gambling, but it gets them comfortable and hopefully addicted to the thrill.
  • Even if the item sold, you're still paying for the Transaction Fee and Cash Out fee.
  • Diablo 3 is a VERY "item centric" game, meaning that even if you sold 5 free items per week, your chances of getting even more items that week are very high. If you were to wait and sell the following week, your stash would just keep growing and growing.
  • Compound that with the item selling in the first place. I mean, what's even the point of having Free Listing Fees if the item doesn't sell? You could use up all 5 Free Lists per week all on the same item. It will keep being undercut by other players (with free listings too) to the point where your single item never sells and you're all out of Free Listings.
  • Compound that even further with player psychology! How many of you have experienced "auction house fervor" or "competition rage" when someone keeps undercutting you? Once your free listings are used up, you'll be on such a streak that you'll start spending money in order to beat your competitor.
So really, what is the point of Free Listing fees if there's a high probability you'll burn through them before even being able to sell an item?

Also, on a related note; it was stated that "Blizzard does not plan to post items that affect gameplay, such as gear or character-enhancing runestones, for sale in the auction house."

The system is anonymous and in no way transparent. Blizzard has "no plans" to post items right now. And, they're only prohibiting "item sales".. they didn't say anything about not selling characters or gold. :)

D3 Gambling Confirmed

Posted by Daeity On Sunday, September 25, 2011

Well well well..

So, the opinion that the Diablo 3 RMAH would be illegal was not received well by many. Everyone is claiming that it's perfectly legitimate and it's no where near the definition of gambling. Many forum users are even calling the notion ridiculous, paranoid, and even retarded.

Apparently, the country of South Korea disagrees with you.

In fact, Michael Morhaime, Robert Bridenbecker, and Blizzard Korea Sr. Mgmt had to meet with the Game Ratings Board this past Thursday to defend the use of their in-game auction house which is being called gambling. A similar in-game auction house system within the game "Emperor Online" was also rejected for its similar item trading, which was also considered gambling.

Without a rating, the game cannot be sold in SK. For now, though, Morhaime has called it "premature" to speculate on the outcome.

South Korea practically invented RMT and microtransactions, and their population makes up a huge stake of Blizzard gamers. So, if they believe something has gone too far (e.g. virtual gambling), then it probably has.

Here's a very interesting section from the news article:

The country’s attitude toward gaming involving cash transactions has irked Blizzard’s local staff who are reluctant to deal with the controversy expected with the introduction of the auction house but are forced by headquarters to launch the feature, an industry source familiar with the matter said.

Before the as-yet-undecided date of the official launch of Diablo III, the U.S. games subsidiary of Vivendi invited journalists Thursday to rebut the accusation that its auction house feature is a virtual casino.

“We’ve heard speculation comparing item trading...to some form of gambling, but in gambling you’re putting something at risk to win,” said Morhaime.

“Items” are won by individual players during the game when they complete a mission. Critics say they come through a randomized selection process, which is based on uncertainty like a card game, but Blizzard says it is a product of the player’s efforts.

“(In Diablo III), you’re not risking anything. You’re just investing your time (to win items to sell). It is an important distinction.”
* Apparently, either Blizzard is being forced by Activision to move ahead with the real money auction house system, or they mean Blizzard Korea is being forced by Blizzard US. It's possible that the Blizzard Korea office is trying to avoid using the RMAH in Korea due to its gambling nature and related laws, but HQ is forcing them to implement it regardless.

* Morhaime stated that in D3, "you're not risking anything". However, when you're trying to sell items on the Auction House to make money, you ARE risking your own money. If you don't sell the item, or someone undercuts you, you lose your Listing Fee for each of your auction posts.

* Robert Bridenbecker also mentioned that there are 3 tiers of money: in-game gold, cash, and the a Blizzard proprietary unit called "battle coins". Battle Coins is a term used by many other online games, so this might be in reference to the Battle.net credit system.

* And, just remember, when Bashiok was first asked about illegal gambling in D3, he claimed that their lawyers had already worked it out, but there was a caveat. His forum post went something like this, "our lawyers worked hard on this, it's sound from a legal perspective, don't worry.. BUT, if any local or country-specific laws do become an issue we'll of course be sure to let people in those regions know." Meaning, they're not really sure and they won't allow it in certain regions if they do find out it's illegal. (You can pretty much ignore anything someone says before the "but".)

And this is just the beginning.. wait until it's released and it starts getting questioned in other countries and even certain US states.

This Is Not A Titan Update

Posted by Daeity On Saturday, September 24, 2011

So, something has happened between now and 3 weeks ago. It was after I had made that "Titan Details Spotted" post. (Disappointed that TitanGuru took credit for my little find.. even though I asked nicely. No worries though, it's happened many times with this blog I've seen.)

Cameron Dayton has deleted all of his tweets regarding Titan and his work comments about his team at the time; it was a very targetted clean up of his public posts.

I guess this confirms that Stan Sakai really is involved with the Titan project (lore side of things), and his tweet about Atlantis and Teotihuacan might have some real relevance now.

So, Titan might be involving ancient civilizations in Mexico and Japan, as well as mythical ones. There will be historical locations to visit, as well as present and future.

He also revised his LinkedIn profile (after like a year of no activity.)

Old One:

Imagining, creating, and writing the universe for Blizzard's new MMO (working title: Titan) from the ground up -- the history, philosophy, heroes, and villains. In addition to the core construction of the game's story, I wrote flavor pieces for the main characters and important events to lend depth and immersion for our team. Much of my time involved meeting with the art and animation team to ensure their work wove into the narrative.
New one:
Imagining, creating, and writing the universe for Blizzard's new MMO (working title: Titan) from the ground up. In addition to the core construction of the game's story, I wrote flavor pieces for the main characters and important events to lend depth and immersion for our team. Much of my time involved meeting with the art and animation team to ensure their work wove into the narrative.
So, he cut out this very specific piece about Titan:
the history, philosophy, heroes, and villains.
I wonder what he means by philosophy. Is that the philosophy of the game, the Titan universe, or each culture within Titan?

Mynsc.. funny how both KimSellentin and CameronDayton are both official followers of the Titan Focus tweets hey? :)

SWTOR Release Date

Posted by Daeity On

Looks like it will be coming out December 20, 2011 in NA and December 22 in Europe.

Just a couple quick points;

Funny how it came the day after Blizzard's announcement that Diablo III was delayed until 2012. They could have released it any time in December, so judging by the late release date it was probably just a coincidence.

That release date is way too close to Christmas. The logistics for this are going to be brutal, and I'm willing to bet that they're not fully prepared. I'm not concerned about the number of users playing the game, Christmas is actually a pretty slow period considering all of the other activities taking place. I do have a slight concern about the technical side (stability during stressful load), but where I'm most worried is their own Customer Service department. It's going to be a nightmare managing the employees, making sure they have enough, and planning ahead for the 50% of staff that won't be showing up during the Christmas break (even though they're scheduled.) It will be even worse even if their Customer Service team has been outsourced.

I'll try to remember to monitor forums around the time of release (I'll be busy myself), and see how their Customer Service fairs. I think it's going to turn out very bad though, you should never release a game close to a major holiday, and it will be a good learning experience for them and other companies.

I haven't decided yet if I'm going to buy the game or not.. it's very tempting, but I'm trying to give up subscription based MMOs.

Interplays IP Hostage

Posted by Daeity On Friday, September 23, 2011

Ah, cool.. more news about the continued battle between Interplay and Bethesda.

It seems like Bethesda is getting pretty desperate now. Unfortunately, their lawyers waited way too long (7 months knowing full well it was being developed) to file their restraining order, which is what undid them in the end.

I think they're getting really desperate because they want to start working on Fallout 5 soon. It's a highly successful IP after all, and they don't have much else planned. In the original Fallout IP sales contract, as soon as Fallout 5 is developed by Bethesda, the IP is reverted back to it's original owner: Interplay.

They have Fallout 3, which has 5 DLC packages. And Fallout 4: New Vegas (which I suspect they didn't call FO4 in the hopes that it might help them in court when the time comes) now has 6 DLC packages. The DLC is being used to buy them some more time, but they can only keep shoveling out crap so far.

Now, I suppose they could create a "new type" of "expansion pack" that completely rebuilds the graphics and gaming engine. Fallout 5 could in fact just be an "expansion pack" to Fallout 4 for example. :) But then there would probably be more legal fights about what exactly constitutes a PC game and an expansion pack.

I think Interplay is just playing the long game. They might not have any money, but they're thinking ahead and they just need to hold out longer then Take Two Interactive can in facing their investors Zenimax can in facing their private investors.

There's probably no real development happening, and Interplay has no serious plans to produce a Fallout MMO, so they're just waiting for Bethesda to fold and finally purchase the Fallout IP unconditionally with an outrageous price tag. This recent legal game is just demonstrating how desperate and unplanned Bethesda is in dealing with the situation. I think, in the end, Bethesda will completely own the Fallout IP but they'll pay an arm and a leg for it. Would be funny though if Interplay got the IP back, and sold it to their competitors.

* Correction: Take-Two published some of the Elder Scrolls, but not Fallout. Fallout was self-published by their Bethesda Softworks division. Although, Namco Bandai published FO4 New Vegas in EU, AU & NZ.

New shows!

Posted by Daeity On

Community, Parks and Rec, and The Office all returned last night.. the episodes sort of felt like they never really left though. Even though they were pretty good, I think I was expecting something more out of them. I'm just glad the Community musical number was kept really short, however.

I had forgotten all about The Mentalist, but it made a return as well. And apparently, it came as a big surprise to many that Red John was still alive. I was a little disappointed by the episode, and it looks like the writers just wanted to rush through it so that they could get back to the "usual formula".

They should have left Jane in jail for a couple episodes or so, it could have given the writers something fun to work with. But instead, the writers just came up with a non-clever (and heavily contrived) idea to get him out of his predicament.

And they've also totally closed the investigations into J.J. LaRoche/Gupta and Fake RJ.. the writers found a brilliant way to justify it too: "They found nothing in their investigation!" Amazing!

"Person of Interest" was "meh", but I didn't actually expect much. Surprisingly, it had "received the highest test ratings of any pilot in 15 years", and the first episode drew in 13.2 million viewers. [Source]

I found it a lot like Human Target (which opened with 10 million viewers), and I won't be surprised if it's popularity and cancellation ends up being identical. It seems that everyone is really hurting for fresh ideas and decent shows.

I hate that backseat car cliche so much though.. Det. Fusco (the corrupt cop) walks right towards his car in daylight, can clearly see into his backseat, and yet doesn't notice John Reese (the hero) sitting in his backseat with a gun. This does not happen in real life. Similarly, he taps her cell phone and listens in to all of her conversations (ie, using it as a microphone), and yet it doesn't cause a terrible drain on her battery and she never needs to recharge it. She cellphones are tapped in real life, even dumb criminals know that dead batteries are a dead giveaway.

And to top the day off, I found out that Dexter 06x01 was leaked online. I was genuinely pleased with the episode and I hope it's a sign of a really good season. Seasons 1 and 2 were awesome, but I wasn't much of a fan as it progressed from Seasons 3 to 5 (they had no real direction or character development). I'm glad that they finally killed off Rita, but I wish that they had gotten rid of LaGuerta instead of Doakes (who was my favorite character). Maybe there's still time for her. :) Anyways, I hope they don't go too overboard with the new religious direction otherwise it could become a slobbering mess.

My speculation, at this time, is that Professor Gellar (Edward James Olmos) and his young protege Travis (Colin Hanks) are probably trying to kickstart armageddon or The Second Coming. Gellar might try to "maintain innocence" throughout the season, and he just gets his pupil to do all the dirty work. I'm hoping they take a different approach, and let the bad guy escape in the end (e.g. he moves to different town and finds another easily influenced pupil after the death of Travis.) Travis himself probably isn't helping the Professor purely because of his charisma either, but maybe because something bad happened in his life. For example, the death of his wife and children, and he wants to be with them again (suicide is a sin, so that's out) or punish the world (believing he can end it by starting the end of days).

You can be certain, though, that the writers are going to randomly pull passages from the Bible and make it fit into the story. Rather than re-enacting Revelations in order (they started with Revelations 13 by the way), they'll just jump around to different verses that they have the budget for and can reproduce.

It also appears that the Lieutenants promotion that was intended for Angel Batista (he shouldn't have sprung for the champagne until it was confirmed) will be going to Deb Morgan instead for her heroics in that restaurant shoot out. She'll probably become an internet sensation in the next episode, which is what prompts that specific PR move.

Weak-ly Update

Posted by Daeity On Thursday, September 22, 2011

Just some random stuff over the past couple weeks that don't deserve their own posts.

  • I just noticed an article called "Diablo 3 Beta Server Hacked - Playable Games Are A Reality". What is this madness?? The beta server has hacked? Anyways, I checked it out and it was just old news about the D3 emulator project. It was through a news aggregator and if I had known it was a N4G article I would have avoided it (they're terrible). I'm not interested at all in the emulator until they actually get some actual gameplay though (e.g. quests, mobs, NPCs, etc.)

  • All of the Diablo 3 videos are still looking the same. It's unfortunate that the Media NDA took so long to lift.. by the time it happened, everyone had already watched a hundred full playthroughs. But, it's even more disappointing that the media sites, knowing this, still created the same recycled demonstrations. I have to give mad credits to TotalBiscuit though, he already knew this was going to happen, so he took a completely different approach and focused on lore instead.
  • Rumor is that D3 beta invites were slowed due to technical problems with the beta servers. Apparently, they were breaking under the stress of some 400-900 concurrent users. They're in the small beta invite release phase right now, but once they work out the technical problems, many more invites will be sent out to ramp up stress testing. It'll just be very quiet for a bit, which is why it seems that no one is getting beta keys. That's the rumor anyways, but you can check out current beta users logged in here. These reports are submitted by other players, but they're very accurate.

  • The class rush videos were pretty awesome, those were my favorites. With a little bit of luck, and a shared stash, almost any player should be able to beat the beta in about 20-25 minutes. The best I've seen so far was 24 minutes, and that was with no stashed gear. Different reports say that the beta is 1/2 or 1/3 of the full Act 1.

  • Since the Monk has a team healing ability, I'm wondering if Blizzard will be implementing any other kind of team healing dynamics but through items instead. For example, an item Lifesteal ability, that effects yourself and other team members for example (or maybe just "everyone else"). Would be pretty fun to have a heavy long-range damage dealing Wizard healing the party during difficult Inferno encounters. And, with all of the heavy PVP implementation in the future (and expansion packs), I wonder if they'll eventually create a large scale PVE experience.. Diablo 3 Raids maybe?

  • Have there been many complaints about the lack of skills in Diablo 3? Most players would have been spoiled by all of the abilities in WoW, and might find themselves using the exact same 2 or 3 abilities from level 20 to 60. I can see a lot of players complaining about this come retail.

  • I probably won't get into the D3 beta, so I'm hoping that I'll get a random invite for the Path of Exile Beta. Trying to get into the PoE beta, though, is the worst kind of tease.. even worse than Diablo 3. Atleast in D3, you have no idea if you're getting a beta key or not. But, PoE has been having multiple competitions, random give-aways on various forums, and the PoE website has a "Beta Invite Timer" showing randomly selected users. You die a little on the inside every time 4 players in a row win a beta key, and they just registered on the forum 2 days ago with 0 posts (when you've had a PoE account since 2010 hoping for an invite). :)

    I tried out one of TalesOfLumin's Twitter contests too. He posted a beta key that needed to be unscrambled. For this contest, I was fully prepared. :) I started the exact instant he tweeted the key (which no one knew when), had an scramble app ready, and started to work on the 120 permutations possible. There's a limit on the number of beta keys you can register and you can get locked out for "Too many key attempts". Took me about 15 minutes to get about 3/4 of the way through the 120 possibilities, and using 3 different proxy servers to avoid the key lock out. Then, I discovered someone had already won it in under 5 minutes of the release. Seriously, that's some crazy luck.

    TalesOfLumin held another YouTube contest for 6 beta keys, which I didn't find out until too late. This time, though, it was for game development ideas in the categories of Most Helpful, Most Creative, and Most Funny.

    The winning ideas were:

    Helpful / mattuo: Queuing up skill points, like in other RPGs.
    Helpful / BogusMeatFactory: Traps or puzzles that require 2 or more players, like in other RPGs.
    Creative / dmlayton1984: Implement the "Lethal Decoy" skill from Diablo 3, but call it "dopplebomb".
    Creative / Cexial: Find a hidden scout, he gives you a quest to fight pirates, the boss is the Ships Captain. You know, like in other RPGs.
    Funny / Spinaltouch: A boss named "COLD SNAP", who is an ice elemental. When you kill him, the loot includes "Rare Sharktooth Maul, 1 Portal Scroll, and a free subscription to the Tales of Lumin Adventure Series."
    Funny / Smackdo: Pokemon reference.

    So yeah, a little disappointed. Out of the 400 posts, there were some really bad ones and there were some really good and creative ideas. I was really surprised that the above ones were chosen.. I mean, there were some really good ones out there that should have won.

  • Wait.. True Blood is over? I just discovered that this past weekend. I had no idea that this last episode was in fact the last episode of the season. It felt just like a mid-season episode. The show basically went nowhere, and it really worries me that the writers produced such drivel. Running out of ideas.. boring storylines.. last minute changes and rushes. Talk about disappointing.

    The only "cliffhanger" for the season was the surprise visit by Reverend Steve Newlin. So.. let me spoil that for you: he's going to be the comic relief for next season. He's also a newly turned vampire, who knows nothing about being a vampire, and doesn't realize that he can't enter Jason's house. It'll become a running joke next season.

    And, the escape of Russell Edgington shouldn't be a big surprise.. it was talked about for months leading up to the season finale (ie, how he'll be making a return next season.) He can't kill the main characters whom he hates, of course, so the writers will need to find a new direction and purpose for him..
  • New episode of Community starts tonight, can't wait! It's unfortunate that they're opening the new episode with a long musical number though.. I hate it when TV shows use this type of filler to extend show length (like in Family Guy). It's really just a way to give writers a break when they can't think of anything clever. What Community really needs to avoid is musicals, flashback episodes, breaking through the 4th wall, and animated episodes. They make a truly great show start to look desperate, and I hope this isn't a sign of writer fatigue.
  • I checked out "The Secret Circle". First and last time mind you. Looks like that show is going to be renewed.. high production value and bad acting, but it targets a key demographic of young females, housewives, and androgynous males who will be gobbling this stuff up. An attractive young girl moves into a new town populated with only attractive people and starts going to a new school with attractive and mysterious men who also have superpowers. Yes, it's the exact same plot as every other vampire and magic novel/series/film. It's weird seeing Thomas Dekker as a high school student.. that guy has been forever playing a high school student (Terminator SCC, Heroes, 7th Heaven). He has a weird "Andrea Zuckerman 90210" type situation going on (Gabrielle Carteris was 29, but portraying a 16 year old high school student).. and it's quite creepy seeing fully grown men still in high school.

  • Ringer, on the other hand, opened up with ratings that were pretty much equivalent to The CW's other last season (drying up) veteran shows. Not a lot of interest in the show, the acting is bad, and cancellation is quite probable. However, the production costs on the show seem very low (they sure saved a ton of money on the green screen boating adventure), so it might be really cheap to produce. Maintaining 1 million viewers might be "adequate" to keep it afloat.

Hey Blizzard

Posted by Daeity On Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Apparently that gambling post is a pretty big hit within Blizzard headquarters. Hopefully, it provides some insight and ideas that they might not have considered and so that their legal teams can further prepare or fix the potential issues.

(I would recommend removing the Listing Fee, or make it refundable if the item does not sell. If the auction is cancelled in advance, for example, then keep the Listing Fee since it was a strategic decision and had nothing to do with chance.)

Since yesterday, I'd have to guess that over 40 unique PCs and smartphones belonging to Blizzard employees have hit the blog, but I've started to lose count now.

All of the direct links seem to be from internal emails, and not by Google searches or other referrals. So, it's something making the rounds inside the office and of definite interest.

If you're a Blizzard employee and reading this, some commentary on the subject of RMT, gambling, and international law would be appreciated. :)

DCUO Going F2P - Nailed It!

Posted by Daeity On Monday, September 19, 2011

Guess we all knew this was coming.

At the beginning of this year, Daeity got the feeling that DCUO would be merging servers, lowering prices, and then converting into a F2P game.

Everything has happened just like he predicted.

Funny note too; back in January Sony also said that F2P was very unlikely. That was around the time they also promised major content releases every month too.. :)

Diablo 3 and Illegal Online Gambling

Posted by Daeity On Friday, September 16, 2011

I've touched on this subject a couple of times and you could say that I have a fixation on the subject. I'm not a lawyer, so I really don't know what or if certain online games can be classified as gambling. What I do know is that lawyers aren't perfect, sometimes they make mistakes and sometimes they don't realize or comprehend all of the variables. I also know that there hasn't been enough questions, or even answers, about this very grey area subject.

Here's what I do know though;

In 2006, a guild on Lightbringer held a virtual raffle for the AQ War Effort with prizes consisting of virtual items like Guild Gold or Gear. Blizzard promptly shut it down and they called it "ILLEGAL GAMBLING."

In 2007, the FBI launched a probe into online gambling taking place within Second Life. As a precautionary measure, Linden Labs shutdown all gambling activity within Second Life and prohibited all forms of gambling. It was left as a grey area, and never deemed illegal, but Linden Labs didn't want to take the risk of potential prosecution. Most lawyers agreed however, that it was illegal gambling; you buy the game, play a game of chance within the virtual world, receive Linden dollars, cash out the Linden dollars into real money. In this situation, however, it was a player run economy and not gambling games created by Linden Labs. (However, they provided the means of facilitating the gambling.)

In 2007, the UK Gambling Act 2005 was revised to include MMOs. They redefined the definition of "gambling" as any and all games which involves the use of both chance and skill to win a prize (the definition of a "game of chance"). Prizes can be cash prizes, products, or virtual objects that can be exchanged for money. A similar change was made in US law in 2006.

Online Gambling

Online gambling is illegal in most countries, but I'm going to focus specifically on the USA. Every country (or region) has different regulations of course, and they go about different ways of trying to control online gambling. It's very convoluted from what I understand and a very unclear legal area, which is why they created the UIGEA.

It's not just for gambling sites, but also anyone or anything related to the gambling service (installation, maintenance, facilitation, etc.) The reason why online gambling was made illegal in the US is because it's difficult to license, regulate, and internet gamblers don't know who is operating the gambling site, if the games are honest, if winnings will be paid, or if the money wagered is used for criminal purposes. Players also have no recourse if they are not paid or cheated, they're put at risk to identity fraud, and internet gambling is an uncontrolled environment for problem gamblers and minors.

As you read through each of those examples, you could see how this already relates to Blizzard in the case of the supported gold and item selling; accounts can be banned with no recourse, money or gold can be seized and not returned, minors can play the game, there's no regulation, it's an addictive environment that is uncontrolled, there's no oversight, it's impossible to tell if the games are honest, and RMAH users don't know if any of the money is used for criminal activities. Blizzard has made posts (but no strong regulations and monitoring) regarding identity theft, so we also know for sure that it happens.

Blizzard has also stated that the Diablo 3 Real Money Auction House will be completely anonymous. So, players will never know who're they're playing against, who they are buying and selling from, if the sales are honest, if sales are being used in criminal situations, or if Blizzard or Blizzard employees are selling items. It's impossible to know and there's no third party oversight.

The generally accepted definition of gambling has 3 components:

* consideration (you have to pay to play the game)
* chance (a random game of chance in which skill can play a minor part)
* compensation (cash, something of value, or a reward)

Consideration and Compensation

Both of these can come in many forms, and it doesn't necessarily have to be in the form of cash. Basically, it's "value in" and "value out".

For example, you could cash in to play a game, but win a car. Or, gamble your car for another car. Value in and value out can be representative of chips, tokens, or virtual gold. Technically, you could apply value to almost anything, but online gambling laws are only interested in something that is cash or can be converted into cash (e.g. "it's liquid").

Gold in Diablo 3 is just a token representing cash value, in the exact same manner as casino chips. Your gold "chips" can be cashed out into real money, or used to play other games inside the virtual "casino" game world. Blizzard owns the virtual property and when you pay for items or sell items, you collect money, but the items ("tokens") are still owned by Blizzard. It's much like a casino owning their own proprietary chips.

Real world value of gold can also change, depending on the virtual economy. Some days it might be worth more than others. Just like in the real world, there are dynamic economies and variables that can adjust the value of money.

So, how does Diablo 3 exhibit these 3 components?

1. The most obvious one that everyone immediately thinks of is loot drops.

Blizzard has repeatedly stated that Diablo 3 is an "item centric game" but they have also stressed a major difference between WOW and D3. Whereas WOW had fixed loot tables and drops in an "Achiever Economy", Diablo 3 random wins are "indeterministic" and everything has a random chance of dropping varying levels of value. There is no skill required in WHAT drops.. you can't control it, it's like a roulette wheel. So, the "loot generation" is purely a game of chance with no skill. However, there is another game of chance (and skill required) to get TO the loot generation components.. and that's by killing a virtual monster. The gambling part is what the monster might drop when you roll that dice.

In regards to loot drops, there's consideration ($60 to play the game and/or gold "chips" to equip armor and play the game), there's a game of chance (loot drops are randomized and have real world value), and there's compensation (items have real value and can be sold.)

But this is where it gets interesting. You see, even though World of Warcraft already falls under this same example, Blizzard is free from legal prosecution because the compensation component is not maintained by Blizzard nor is it supported in any way. Blizzard has called gold sales illegal, and compensation can only occur in the black market. Most MMORPGs are free from prosecution, because gold selling (cashing out) is a violation of their rules, not supported, and there are preventative measures in place to prevent it. Without the "cashing out" component, it's not considered gambling.. even though a form of virtual gambling does take place.

In Diablo 3, it seems as though they're getting around this loophole by calling it a "Player Run Economy". The current beta client also has old references to actual "gambling" systems within the game, but I strongly suspect that the word "gambling" will be removed from all Blizzard announcements and communications and probably stricken even from the game itself. :)

In a "Player Run Economy", Blizzard is implying that any activities or gambling within the system will take place between the users and which they won't directly profit from. But, they still get a cut of all the action, they create the games and prizes, they collect consideration, they control the odds, and they can influence or change the economy. It's not really a "Player Run Economy" either if they can control and change the economy on a whim directly or indirectly. This is what Linden Labs tried with Second Life, and it didn't work out for them.

2. Player Gambling and Betting

The impression that Blizzard is trying to give is that the "Player Run Economy" will all take place between the players and they're completely hands off. We know that's not exactly true though. But, let's say for arguments sake that it truly was a player-run economy and that they profited in no way from gold or item sales.

What if players started gambling in game? What if they create virtual casinos like they did in World of Warcraft? (Which Blizzard had already banned and called "illegal.")

What if players engaged in gambling and placing wages in Arena PVP matches?

There are already some great communication systems in place to facilitate and support these exact activities.

The players might be doing something illegal, but Blizzard is supporting the activity, facilitating it, and maintaining it. And, as stated by Blizzard previously, since they don't view it as "gambling" in the first place, then that would mean it's not regulated, there's no oversight, minors can participate, and they're not stopping or preventing the activity from taking place.

Arena PVP would be an awesome betting and gambling system with very high stakes and risks. (And undetectable cheating.)

It might also encourage the development of virtual bookies, escrow services, and loan sharks. Don't have enough money? Just put your high level players up for collateral, if you lose, they're sold off. Gaming is becoming a professional sport, and it wouldn't be a professional sport without gambling and cheating.

3. "Gheed" Gambling and Artisans

As mentioned previously, there are references to gambling and a Gambling Vendor in the Diablo 3 beta files. They're right along side the General, Weapon and Armor vendors.

It appears that there was, at one point, a "Gheed" gambling vendor available in the game. I'm uncertain if it will be in retail or not, but I suspect that all references to "gambling" will be removed.

"Gheed" gambling is a gambling system within the game where you can wage gold, and there's a small chance to win a highly valuable item. That item can be, in turn, converted into real money.

Artisans also have a gambling feature. When you craft certain items, by inputting gold and materials, the item crafted has random statistics.. this means that you can gamble your money (gold) for a chance at winning an item of less, equal, or higher value. Salvaging of items is also gained through a randomized gambling system.. so you can gamble an item, to create random materials, which can be used for more gambling to increase overall value and win more cash.

You shake the dice when getting loot, you shake the dice when converting the loot into mats, you shake the dice when turning the mats into a random item, and you shake the dice when selling the item.

As you can see, there are layers upon layers of gambling systems within this virtual world.. and everything can be cashed out into the real world.

4. The Auction House Metagame

This is one of the activities that Blizzard lawyers might not have considered to be gambling. Blizzard has already boasted at great lengths about the new Auction House metagame within Diablo 3. They're completely right about the AH being a metagame.. it's a game of chance within a game of chance.

However, when you see how the system works, it's evident that "playing the Auction House" is actually a type of gambling.

Whenever you put an item up for sale on the Auction House, you must pay a mandatory Listing Fee. So, every time you post an item, you're taking a risk or a gamble that your item may or may not sell. If you don't win the AH gamble, you lose money. If you do win the AH gamble, Blizzard takes their cut and you get a cash prize.

There are inherent risks involved in every listing. And don't be fooled, there are a significant number of random variables that can alter your odds of winning or losing the AH gambling game; number of players buying or selling, when farmers are banned or allowed to play, when new patches are implemented, hotfixes, hacks and cheats, Blizzard changes listing fees or AH cuts, when certain regions have network access or others can't access the AH, Blizzard changes random loot, changes loot value, decreases loot drop chances, increases treasure drop amounts, changes skills or items that affect MF%, creates new items or loot, creates new bosses, changes number of monsters per zone, etc. All of these examples can drastically alter the economy and your chances of winning with just the simple flip of a number.

The RMAH metagame is like taking all of your winnings from various casino games, and then gambling with the casino to see if you can exit the building with your prizes. You also gamble to see how much they cut into your profits and how much you get to keep.

Bidding and Posting

Keep in mind that the RMAH "metagame" does involve chance and risk due to the non-refundable Listing Fee. But, there's very minimal case law when it comes to gambling and auction systems. There are a lot of websites or online games right now that are operating in murky legal waters because gambling commissions have not pushed the issue.. yet.

When you're posting items, you're playing a game against other players where very little skill is involved and it's mostly random chance. Bidding for items, on the other hand, is something different and more strategic.

So, forget auction listings.. what about just bidding in an auction?

When you examine the Unique Bid Auction system for example, it's considered gambling but not always enforced in most countries. The reason it's considered gambling is because BIDS are NON-REFUNDABLE.

(a) Paying a non-refundable fee
If no fee of any kind is required to bid, as with traditional auction models like EBay, the scheme is not a lottery because participants are not losing money or kind.
In Diablo 3, bids are refundable.. but posting items is not.

Last year, the Italian government shut down a number of online auction sites because they were charging non-refundable fees for bids. So, in Italy, unique bid auction sites are considered games of chance and they are illegal to operate without a gaming license.

And this was just for BIDDING on an auction, not even the POSTING aspect that I've been writing about.

There is also the Bidding Fee auction system (aka Penny Auctions) where players must pay a non-refundable fee to place on a small incremental bid. Some lawyers claim it's illegal and others say it is legal because bidding on the items is strategic. But, once again, it's very ambiguous because government regulators haven't pushed the issue.

In South Africa, however, this type of auction/gambling system is considered illegal. And, here's the interesting bit as to why:
(7) No fee may be charged for participation in an auction, but this does not apply to refundable deposits.
In other countries, though, they don't have any clear legislation about this type of auctioning system. Because of the advances in technology, gaming regulators just can't keep up and there are a lot of legal loopholes being exploited.

Swoopo is a good example in the US. They've gone bankrupt now, but it was under heavy criticism because of its gambling nature. This NY Times article was a funny read, the gambling industry consultant basically said: 'Well.. it's not really permitted in some states and most of Europe, but it's also not explicitly prohibited either." Brilliant. :)

I liked this part too from the sources in the Wikipedia entry: "the non-determinism comes directly from the actions of other users." That sounds very similar to the D3 RMAH, however Blizzard also has the ability to alter the non-determinism of LISTINGS by changing loot flow and random chance within the game.

If Blizzard and PayPal want to avoid any possible legal complications, they should remove the Listing (Non-Refundable) Fee to remove the definition of gambling from its auction system.

But, that would mean EBay is also gambling!

There are huge differences between EBay and the RMAH. Anyone who uses this as an example shows just how little they understand about the situation. It would be the only possible "auction" system they could think of, for example, and they wouldn't be aware that there are forms of online auctions that are in fact illegal.

Here are some of the reasons why EBay is not considered gambling, and how the RMAH is different:
  • EBay does not create all of the items that are sold in the auction.
  • EBay cannot control of the odds and random chance of user auctions.
  • EBay does not sell any products or services that they own themselves.
  • Users do not sell items that they received through gambling with EBay.
  • Users do not play games of random chance with EBay directly to sell items or to receive items to sell.
  • EBay does not create virtual auction items that have no real value.
  • Users sell physical items that have real value and depreciate.
  • Users sell something they own, and are transferring ownership. They are not selling something that EBay owns and continues to own after sale.
  • Users buy items for less or equal to what they are worth. They do not pay increasingly high prices for zero value items in which EBay profits.
  • In EBay, users compete with other users. There is transparency and rules. In the RMAH, you are playing against the House.
  • Users do not use a proprietary currency created by EBay.
  • EBay users know who they are selling to, financials are traceable, and monetary transactions are refundable or recoverable.
  • EBay users sell highly unique items. Not millions of the same item.
If EBay were to be run like the RMAH, here's how it would work:

EBay would have their own proprietary currency. Users would buy a license in order to use EBay, and told that they don't own anything. EBay would create virtual items themselves (that are worthless), and users could win these items through games of random chance. Users could then attempt to sell these items on the EBay Auction House, but selling the item would be completely random chance and based on odds that EBay controls. You would be competing against "the House" to sell your item and EBay can make it easier or harder to sell your item. You have to pay for the Insertion Fee every time you lose an auction. All transactions would be anonymous, and you have no idea if you're playing against a real person, a minor, a criminal organization, or an automated system.

But it's only pennies!

I think a lot of people don't see the gambling nature of the game because the transactions are just so small. But, I see it as an entire world (or virtual casino) full of microgambling transactions in different forms. All of the little games are presented in different ways, there are different rules and players, and they have flashy graphics and colorful disguises.. but at their core, it's still gambling and everyone knows it.

Making $0.10 per day by gambling items on the RMAH doesn't sound like a lot, but multiply that by millions of transactions per day or per hour.

Like Blizzard said, it's an item centric game. The entire game is about items and gold (basically, casino chips), managing them, organizing them, buying and selling them, and gambling even further with them.

In a typical gaming session, an average player might participate in thousands or tens-of-thousands of microgambling related interactions and not even realize it. NPCs drop tons of treasure (from 1-10 objects like gold or loot). Say you kill 500 monsters in one session (which is probably very low); that's potentially 1000-2000 random dice rolls at a game of chance. Salvage the items for their mats and that's another 1-2k in attempts at gambling for higher valued items. Craft items from those mats or sell on the Auction House; that's another gambling metagame.

PayPal is also part of and supporting this new infrastructure. For the past several months, they have been eliminating the "illegal" black market gold sales competition and clearing a path for Blizzard to be the only authorized gold seller for Blizzard games.

What's even more funny is that gambling is strictly against PayPals own policy.
PayPal Acceptable Use Policy

You may not use the PayPal service for activities that:

- involve gambling, gaming and/or any other activity with an entry fee and a prize, including, but not limited to casino games, sports betting, horse or greyhound racing, lottery tickets, other ventures that facilitate gambling, games of skill (whether or not it is legally defined as a lottery) and sweepstakes unless the operator has obtained prior approval from PayPal and the operator and customers are located exclusively in jurisdictions where such activities are permitted by law.
Other Impacts

I imagine that when the RMAH launches it will be a rather frightening time for Vivendi, Activision, Blizzard, and PayPal. But, let's say the RMAH is highly successful, and either the governments of the world don't consider it gambling or they win court cases proving that it's not considered gambling.

The problem up until now is that online gambling is illegal, but the lack of prosecution has made it an unwritten rule that indirect online gambling (or within video games) is legitimate. No one has ever pushed the boundaries (take Linden Labs for example), but once an entity pushes the boundaries, everyone else can learn from it or abuse it.

* Blizzard, for example, could push the boundaries even further. They can start introducing more game features that look a lot more like obvious gambling; for example a real "Gheed" gambling vendor in the game, minigames where players can compete against each other, or a UI and payment system for Arena PVP gambling and betting. If it becomes a popular spectator sport (like Starcraft), there might be a fee system for watching or participating in the fights.

* Setting a legal precedent will allow gambling sites in many countries to create a legal loophole for their own games. Here's a video game example; players buy the MMO game from a retail store or online, players meet together as avatars in a virtual world with casino games and can compete to win virtual gold, this virtual gold can be sold on an auction house to other players for real money. New players must buy virtual gold from the auction house in order to participate in the casino games.

* Don't want it to look like real gambling? Change the name "Horse Racing" to "Bunny Chase" and swap their textures. "Dog fighting? No no.. that's just the players demon pets engaged in PVP". Gambling sites could seriously exploit this same approach by just changing names around, or make it indirect gambling. Kill a monster by tapping the space bar a few times.. oh wow, he just dropped a deck of cards. Let's use this deck of magic cards (that looks just like a poker deck) with some other players in my zone. "The casino isn't running this virtual economy.. it's a PLAYER RUN ECONOMY! See, there's a difference! This is legal!"

* Other than the new waves of gambling addictions, how about the other real world economical or sociological effects? Blizzard has condemned Gold Selling due to the detrimental effects that it has on players. It's a well known fact that RMT is an effective business in developing countries and it encourages exploitation, forced labor, creation of sweat shops, and other what we would call inhumane conditions.

Whether it's a black market or legitimate RMT business, it makes no difference. Sweat shops will still be created no matter who is running the RMT business. By "legitimizing" RMT, however, it makes it easier for more people to participate, potential buyers feel more safe, it creates a system for them to use that guarantees trust and certified sales, and if anything, it makes it much more easy to profit from the exploitation of workers. I wonder what human rights groups would say to a business that first condemns exploitation of workers, and then turns around and supports the activity because they profit from it?

Players from any country can farm on whatever D3 regional server they select, and players would have no idea of what their money is supporting or what was involved in farming that anonymous item that was purchased.

Don't get me wrong..

I'm not anti-RMAH or really pro-RMAH either. What I like about the RMAH is that it's new, exciting, thought provoking, and untested for such a popular franchise. But, I also have no illusions about Blizzards new direction.

I'm most excited about the concept of "illegal online gambling" and if it can be legally applied to Diablo 3. Online gambling is very ambiguous at the moment, and no one has taken the risk of going to court over the issue. Because of this big push into virtual world gambling, we should see some interested things come out of it.

From a morality standpoint, we all know it's gambling, but that doesn't matter because it comes down to what you can prove in court. If it's made legal, so be it; it will open a door to new opportunities for online casino owners. I wonder if they're tracking this new direction at all and understand how it affects them..

The first few months should be really fun, but it probably won't happen the way most players are expecting.

Everyone is talking about selling items, but no one is talking about buying items. Every forum message I see is, "Oh man, I can't wait.. I'll be farming for hours and selling this stuff for cash baby!" like they're truly expecting everything they post will sell. I haven't heard anyone say, "I can't wait to spend all my money to help level up my character!" or "The first thing I'm going to do is buy a new character!"

During the beginning phases, there's going to be an explosion of people selling every item imaginable with impossibly expensive price tags. All of the rookies think they've discovered the holy grail and foolishly believe that no one else will be doing the same thing. The market will be flooded, and no one will be buying because everyone just wants to sell. Blizzard is going to clean up on all of those Listing Fees. Investors will be very happy.

The sad truth is that eventually the casual player isn't going to care as much about making money on the RMAH, they'll give up, and fall in line like everyone else. The RMAH will become a place to visit occasionally and spend money on a couple microtransactions every once in a while. More time will be spent enjoying the game, but it's the select group of professionals who will know how to drive RMAH revenue and they'll be the ones making all the sales.

Problem is, content will be desperately needed to continue driving players to collect loot. What's the point in getting better and better gear, if you already have adequate gear to beat the final difficulty level solo? Players need new content where gear is more valuable, especially in cases like PVP battlegrounds. Introducing more PVP features will increase the need for the better items on the RMAH. And we all know that's where the best gear will come from.

Blizzard should have a very good understanding of their players, especially from all of the lessons learned through World of Warcraft. Increasing PVP features (1v1, 2v2, 10v10 arenas and huge battlegrounds) will significantly increase RMAH sales and also drive up their revenue. Because of the importance of driving revenue, and how directly related PVP is, you should see a TON of PVP features implemented in the future through both patches and expansion packs. Right out of the gate, though, it will be limited.

I do know that large scale battleground combat will eventually be made available. It's their destiny.

Related Posts

Here's a summarized list of the other various Diablo 3 Gambling related posts that I have written. I think they're a very important read, and more people should be aware of what's going on.

How the RMAH can be considered online gambling: [LINK]
Comparison of D3 to other forms of gambling: [LINK]
Another follow up on illegal gambling: [LINK]
How players are forced into using the RMAH: [LINK]

On a related note to that last link, the Listing Fee for the gold auction is currently 15% of the final price. That's a HUGE amount, and definitely a turn off for players who could save a ton of money by paying the Cash Auction House flat fee. Not only will players only be able to obtain the best gear on the RMAH, but the current state of the Gold Auction House is further pushing players into the RMAH.

So far, there's really nothing out there on the net that discusses this important topic. But if I find any thought provoking articles, I'll be sure to post them here.

* Here's an old article from 2005 about gambling in emerging MMORPGs that is relevant today.

[Sept. 24, 2011] Update:

* Here's an interesting read about the South Korean GRB (Game Rating Board) questioning multiple large MMO developers about types of gambling within their games.

Blizzard is not one of them (since they don't have any current in-game cash systems), however NCSoft, Mgame, and Nexon are included in their investigation. Their concern is about "jackpot items", or basically players who have certain or little chance of winning high value items. I wonder if this could be applied to selling high value items with little chance?

* And, here's an older post from the same Korean site about the MCST (Ministry of Culture, Sports, and Tourism) considering regulation about Random Items. It's a very grey area there too, but it's still recognized by many as gambling.

Even the UK Government has been drafting legislation in which auction site owners would need to obtain a gambling license to operate. Certain auction sites would be exempt, but this is for the substantial changes in online auction and gambling systems and still years away from completion.

* Here's a case where two players were charged for buying and selling virtual items in Lineage II. Apparently, they bought a large quantity of items through an online trading site, sold the items in-game, and then resold the virtual gold for a much higher profit. Both users were acquitted as the SK Supreme Court ruled that the money was not gained through random chance or coincidence, but rather that it was strategically bought and sold. This is a very good example proving that Auction Houses can be used to buy and sell items in-game, and it's not gambling as long as there's no random chance or risk involved (in getting the items or buying/selling the items.)

* Imagine a penny auction system within a virtual world for buying items. Many geographies would consider that gambling. Or when you try to sell items, it's through luck, coincidence or random chance.. and each attempt costs you money (risk based.)

* A blog that discusses Korean legislation. Interesting read that's related to the gambling issue.

A little thought about D3 exploits..

Posted by Daeity On Thursday, September 15, 2011

Alright, so by now you're aware that Diablo 3 has been designed with a new type of client/server security system and with methods of exploit detection.

I've also updated the Unrealized Reality of Diablo 3 post with an example showing what happens to areas that haven't been randomly generated yet, and how model editing (for the purposes of world crafting exploitation) is not possible in Diablo 3. Well.. there is sort of a way to still do it, but it's rather annoying and relies on a certain measure of random generation by the server. Plus, Diablo's Warden system will be checking for file modifications.

Anyways, F&F beta players are discovering that the client is doing a lot of little combat tricks in order to keep the flow of combat and mask latency issues. Unlike WOW, which is more turn based in hit and damage calculations, Diablo 3 seems to be taking some liberties with client side damage calculations. Maybe this is just part of the beta test and things will change when it goes live? Who knows.

There are more details here that help explain.

F&F sources have it that Blizzard are using a new method of client/server communication that provides a secure and tamper-proof method of using the local client to handle its own calculations, while sending the data to the server for verification.
This is really good news for hackers.. it's something different, interesting, and a new challenge with some hefty financial rewards. :)

Even during bad latency, combat damage and related calculations are still being calculated on the client end so combat action and fighting appears seamless (and enemies can die) even with terrible latency.

This means that there's a client element involved, and if there is, it can be manipulated or exploited. For example, injecting swing count or damage numbers in the packet stream to increase DPS.

If I was designing the game, the approach that I would use would be a "forward thinking algorithm" where all of your combat damage is already pre-calculated several steps ahead by the server. This could be very easily done in all MMOs to reduce latency, and it's the approach I would take to improve client speed and response time (it's actually more of an illusionary effect) while simultaneously retaining security of data.

For example, you know how the D3 server streams map data to the client as territory is explored? Well, it could also be streaming (pre)randomly generated combat damage data to the client in preparation for all upcoming damage. Say, for example, 100 hits in advance of the actual combat. Even if your connection is experiencing heavy lag, both the client and server knows what damage and identical outcomes to all future combat will be. This way, the data can't be manipulated locally else it will fail security checks.

If this is true, it might also mean that drops are randomly calculated in advance too. :)

It's very clever, but it opens up some new challenges for Blizzard. For one, it means that future hit data would be pre-cached somewhere in memory (so players could essentially determine future damage and make adjustments to exploit it). Knowing future rolls would also allow a player to "reset" the stream to get better loot, but I doubt they would allow this.

That's if "future data" is actually streamed; no one has investigated this yet to confirm. However, if damage IS calculated by the client without a simultaneous server check (maybe there's one within a set period of time?), then latency hacks to adjust DPS will definitely be possible.

Can't wait until someone digs deeper into the client server packet stream. Maybe that D3 Emulator team might discover the truth during their investigation. :)

PayPal Blizzard Relationship CONFIRMED!

Posted by Daeity On Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Blizzard has just announced that PayPal is their third party vendor for managing the Diablo 3 payment service.

We're pleased to announce that in most regions, PayPal will be our payment-service partner for the Diablo III auction house, allowing players who trade with real-world currency the ability to cash out the spoils of their battle-torn adventures via a PayPal account.

PayPal will also soon be added in several regions as a payment option on Battle.net, providing another convenient and secure payment method for digital purchases of Blizzard products and services.

We’ll share region-related specifics, as well as further details on everything mentioned above, in the near future. Stay tuned!
Let me put on my shocked face.

I had thought it was pretty obvious when the two got into bed together to put other PayPal gold sellers and potential Blizzard competitors out of business. Now you why PayPal was so eager to help out Blizzard.. they must have been in negotiations. :)

This also means that PayPal might be unintentionally engaging in potentially illegal gambling once the Real Money Auction House is live. Should be interesting if the FBI launches a probe like they did in Second Life. I would love to see the matter finally settled on gambling within virtual worlds and Activision Blizzard is just the type of company to create the legal precedent.

I guess this also means that the RMAH will have at minimum 4 cuts now: the Listing Fee cut, the Transaction Fee, the Cash Out cut, and the PayPal Cash Out cut and other miscellaneous fees. There's also the government's cut. All I know is that when the Auction House fees are announced, there are going to be a lot of pissed off users. I suspect that $1 in revenue is quickly going to become a 50 cent profit.

A little reminder..

Posted by Daeity On Tuesday, September 13, 2011

If you are fortunate enough to receive a Diablo 3 beta invite, make sure you support Blizzard as much as possible.

Read quests and lore thoroughly for any spelling mistakes, investigate bugged items or quests, test out all features of the client, try out different drivers and different settings, and simply test everything you can think of.

When you submit reports, keep them clear, concise, and polite.

Providing excellent support now will increase your chances of being invited back for future beta tests. So, be extremely helpful and supportive of Blizzard and don't abuse the privilege of being selected as a beta tester.

MMR Exploit

Posted by Daeity On

Funny how people are completely convinced that since World of Warcraft has been around for 7 years, that there isn't anything left to exploit and all of the holes have been plugged. :)

What's even scarier, though, are the people who believe that "hacks" and "duping" have never happened in WOW. I see these arguments on forums all the time.. and it's very depressing each and very time. (Duping is still a common problem in WOW, and it's going to happen in Diablo 3 too.)

Anyways.. apparently, MMR exploits in World of Warcraft are still around. I don't really follow WOW anymore and I just learned about this by accident. I thought it was worth mentioning..

In fact, I can't remember a time when there HASN'T been a Match Making exploit available in WOW. These types of exploits have been around since Arenas were first launched. More details here on Reddit, and here's a link to the exploit. Users are trying to get as many people to know about the exploit as possible, so that Blizzard will do something about it.

The GCD hack was always my favorite though.

Weak-ly Update

Posted by Daeity On Saturday, September 10, 2011

* The big news is that the Beta Opt In rules have suddenly been changed. Previously, it was anyone who owned an Active Battle.net account which required any Blizzard game. Now, it's only anyone with an active World of Warcraft or Starcraft 2 account.

So, for those veteran accounts who have been playing Diablo 2 for 10 years.. they have no chance of getting into the Diablo 3 beta. Starcraft 2 players do, though.

The claim was later refuted, reconfirmed, refuted, reconfirmed, and then refuted again. These were all done by CMs or GMs.. so who really knows what internal rules are really being followed.

I've been told that there are other unofficial rules too.. like unsupported video cards won't make the beta, certain system specs, and "flagged accounts".

What's really interesting about this sudden change in the beta rules, is that it comes 1 week after I wrote about this exact same strategy. I've always known that the blog was monitored by Blizzard, and thankfully Daeity had hooked me up with some tools to track that sort of thing. There's a Blizzard system, for example, that has been "pinging" the blog twice a day at pre programmed intervals for quite a while now. It "watches" front page and new posts only. Just a very strange coincidence that after that blogspot about B.Net accounts, they changed the rules exactly for that situation. :)

* If you're interested in a Diablo 3 Beta "Offline Crack", there's a server emulator in the works. You can get all the information you want here. It's very early stages and something marginally playable is still several weeks away.

* More news from Rockstar, as expected. The release date for Max Payne 3 has been announced.. once that's out of the way, should free up some room for a RDR PC port announcement.

* Blizzard announced 6 games within the next 3 years at the recent Citigroup conference. These games are: Diablo 3, D3 X1, SC2 X2, SC2, X3, WOW X4, and WOW X5. This is all very very old news though and practically everyone already knew all about this. Not sure why this was suddenly "news" on so many gaming sites.

* I was going to add a bunch of stuff about illegal online gambling in this post, but it got so huge that I had to create a brand new post for it. I'll put it up later when it's done.

* I was thinking about writing an article on the "New" Diablo 3 Blackmarket that will emerge. You know, potential changes to the blackmarket now that Blizzard is running their own ingame Cash Auction House.

For example; because RMAH will not be available to Hardcore players, that's one market where items will be available. Because of the rarity and risk involved for farmers, the value of items will be substantially more expensive than Blizzard's RMAH. The size of the Hardcore community is a factor at play here too.

Third party websites will also sell the cheaper items (but in larger volume) with no listing fees. The big seller here won't necessarily be high end gear, but probably items or mats instead.

But, what other kind of stuff? Maybe Hardcore character sales? Maybe even the same stuff sold on the RMAH, but without the listing fee. It all depends on the listing fee, but I'll be pretty disappointed if it's more than $0.20 per item.

I really like the new RMAH, mostly because it's new and different for such a popular franchise, and it creates new forms of competition and tactics in the industry. I'm looking forwards to seeing how the market will evolve, and how Blizzard will combat competitors.